This grant produced a paper titled "Goal Expectations as Predictors of Retirement Intensions," which was published as Volume 61, No. 1 of The International Journal of Aging and Human Development (Baywood Publishing Company, Inc.).
Professor Walsh, working with Ruby Brougham, also of the University of Southern California, interviewed 251 subjects between the ages of 55 and 77, in order to analyze the factors predicting the decision to retire. Approximately three-quarters were younger than 62, 135 were men, and 116 were women. Roughly two-thirds intended to retire in the next seven years. The analysis was conducted by measuring the subjects' intent to retire over the next one, three, and five-year time periods; their personal perceptions of whether working or retiring would conflict with or facilitate the achievement of important life goals; and their perceptions of the consequences they expected to incur if they retired or continued to work.
Considerable research exists which examines factors such as health and financial status that influence the timing of the retirement decision. In contrast, the researchers in this project focused on the underlying psychological processes of the decision-maker. For example, when thinking about retiring, what set of choices does an individual consider? What goals might be facilitated by the retirement decision? Conversely, what goals might conflict with the decision to retire?
The researchers used a multiple regression model to examine goal variables over and above variables identified in other research (i.e., health and financial status) as good predictors of retirement intention. Specifically, they analyzed a set of health and household income variables as significant predictors of retirement age and found that they explained six percent of retirement intentions. They added in a set of demographic variables consisting of age, gender, and education and found that these explained an additional 14 percent of the variance in retirement intentions. Finally, they added the variables representing work and retirement goal conflict and found that these predicted an additional 22 percent of the variance in retirement intentions. (An example of work and retirement goal conflict might be an individual wanting very much to take a trip around the world, weighing the need to continue working in order to attain this goal.) Hence, a total of 42 percent of the variance in retirement intentions was predicted by health, income, demographic, and goal conflict variables - with the largest explanatory contribution made by the goal conflict variables.
The elimination of mandatory retirement has opened the possibility for professors to work as long as they wish, complicating personnel planning for educational employers. In the absence of mandated retirement, the possibility of conflicting goals as part of the retirement decision must be considered. The researchers hope to build on their results by designing a survey of perceived goal conflict and facilitation that could be used to predict who is likely to retire, and when.
